Factors Stalling the Peace Process in Sudan

By Magdi A. Mofadal

Sudan’s partners are sounding the alarm over the deteriorating humanitarian situation in the country, particularly in Darfur. 

The crisis that emerged from the foiled coup d’état staged by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF, and turned into rebellion, passed its fourth month.

Observers are raising questions about this war and avenues for its resolution in the context of this humanitarian situation and the stalled peace process.

Early mediation efforts have started since April 2023 by the Jeddah humanitarian peace talks under the auspices of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United States of America.

 

The Declaration on Commitment to Protection of Civilians was signed on the 11^th of May and was followed by several short-term humanitarian truces. All the attempts by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the African Union, Sudan’s neighbouring countries and some regional and international actors to bridge the gap between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF have proven futile.

 

Several internal and external factors that contribute to stalling the mediation efforts and worsening the humanitarian situation in the country will be outlined below.

 Internal complications

The rebels have displayed an alarming lack of commitment to the Jeddah Declaration and the humanitarian truces. Instead, they used these ceasefires to redeploy and resupply their forces. They are still refusing to evacuate residential homes and civilian institutions. This prompted the Government to recall its negotiating team from Jeddah for consultation.

The wide scale abhorrent atrocities committed by the rebels against innocent civilians and the systematic looting, destruction and burning of public and private properties created a very hostile atmosphere against them.  Large segments of the Sudanese society became adamantly opposed to any negotiation with them, and it seems that they are not trusted any more for any future role. In such an environment, the return to the status quo ante became impossible. Even the window opened at the beginning of the war by the general amnesty granted by the President of the Sovereign Council to the rebels who lay their arms to be integrated into SAF, is closing day by day.

Worsening the humanitarian situation in the country became an end for the rebels. When they realized that they were losing the battle in Khartoum, they started attacking other areas, particularly in Darfur and Kordofan. They aim to pressurize the Government to negotiate and sign a deal that will maintain them in the security and political equations in the country.

The rebels’ fluid agenda has added complications to the negotiations. Firstly, they denied that they had started the conflict through the failed coup. They alleged that they wanted to bring democracy and to eliminate supporters of the previous regime in the state institutions.  At a later stage, some of them claimed that they wanted to eradicate the post-colonial state. They ended up by claiming that they want to change the leadership of SAF to bring peace in 72 hours. Their actions on the ground totally contradict all these claims.

           All previous coup d’états in Sudan were staged by a small group of army officers, who upon failure, would face consequences ranging from arrest to execution.  However, the current scenario introduces a novel facet. This is the first time in which the Government negotiates with coup staggers of approximately 80000 troops, who turn into rebels.

         After absorbing the initial shock, SAF started its counter offensive, bombarding the rebels’ main bases in different parts of Khartoum. When they lost these camps, the rebels adopted a strategy of occupying state institutions, hospitals, and civilian residential homes to use them as makeshift barracks. This made it extremely difficult for SAF to chase them out of these widely scattered buildings, in a mega city of over 13 million inhabitants and a territory of over 22000 square kilometres.

External complications

           The delay of the international community in condemning the atrocities of the rebels contributed to prolonging the suffering of the Sudanese people.  Condemnation took two months, underscoring the need for increased pressure on the rebels to lay down arms and cease hostilities.

            Regrettably, some foreign actors continue to fuel this devastating conflict by providing financial, military, intelligence, and/or diplomatic and political support to the rebels. Such bolstering fails to incentivize genuine negotiations, as the rebels and their allies evade accountability for their actions.

            Matters were further complicated by the wide scale participation of mercenaries alongside the rebels and the scandalous intervention of some regional actors. This made the coup and the subsequent rebellion look like a plot by some foreign circles.

            Some regional and international partners fall in the oversimplification trap that plies its complexity.  Despite the glaring differences between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and RSF, some partners continue to equate them, dismissing the latter’s atrocities and its involvement in a foiled coup and rebellion. This must stop immediately.

            Other partners have been engaging in one-sided conversations with selected Sudanese stakeholders outside the country. Engagement with all stakeholders is indispensable to achieve true and sustainable peace. The voice of the silent majority, who are bearing the brunt of the war tragedies inside the country, must be heard. After silencing the guns, addressing the humanitarian situation, and starting the normalization of life, indirect dialogue can begin. When confidence is built among all stakeholders, it can progress to direct conversation. Impartiality and neutrality are the bedrock for effective mediation.

           Thus, all these factors combined to reflect the complexity of the situation in Sudan and the enormous challenges facing the peace process. In the midst of this intricate landscape, it is imperative to candle the beacon of hope. Given the widespread shocks, trauma, and despair that afflict swathes of society, maintaining optimism is critical. The first step in accomplishing this is by bolstering the humanitarian response plan, which is only 25% funded. Devising a robust economic recovery plan and pooling concerted efforts to support mediation are of paramount importance. Such measures lay the foundations for a brighter future, one that encompasses all the Sudanese citizens.

(Magdi Mofadal is the ambassador of Sudan to Austria. The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the writer.  Reach him at magdimofadal2011@gmail.com.)