France: Political Compromise vs Political Instability
By Abdennour Toumi
For weeks French politics has been so odd that it could be mentioned in any political fiction series: The West Wing, House of Cards, and Baron Noir or all together.
After three successive and scathing defeats of President’s Emmanuel Macron camp: the European elections and in two rounds of parliamentary elections in June and July, yet nothing changes: Gabriel Attal is still Prime Minister and Yaël Braun-Pivet was re-elected President of the National Assembly (lower chamber) – the president did dissolve the National Assembly to end the two years of parliamentary deadlock.
As a result the outcome of the July 7 parliamentary election didn’t bring any solution to the previous legislative context, on the contrary, the July 7 result did force French politicians to deal with the third and fourth republics politics without talented politicians and journalists.
In other words, one could predict the beginning of the end of the fifth republic that emerged in 1958 to make an end to a parliamentary system, and give strong power to the president (presidential system) of the Republic in the legal spirit of the 1958’s Constitution.
Politicking in deep crisis
The question of politics and politicking in France is more than just a partisan selling point and an electoral agenda. The aim of the matter is that France has been culturally divided and socially fractured, going through deep societal questions for three decades and a half, starting with the question of national identity and immigration – since 1989, was a societal and a political shift in France dealing with the thorny question of immigration, which was shifted from its ethnic character to religious one. From this stance, the pretext of banning of the headscarf in French junior and senior high as it is banned in public servant offices, ever since, French politician leaders (far-right, left, and center) alike, media, and yuppy Parisian elite on the Seine’s Left Bank make the question of the headscarf and Islam the sacred cow of French Secularism (Laïcité).
This religious and cultural way of dressing and modesty that turned into a serious societal topic gives a counter argument to the far-right in France to tarnish millions of Muslims, who are peaceful people well integrated, struggling with life on a daily basis like their fellow white citizens who have been facing harsh inflation since the breakout of COVID-19 and recently political instability.
The RN (National Rally) far-right party politicians and militants, the extremist right-wing journalists, and the voters of ex-the LR party, were subsequently jubilanting in the week of the first and the second round of July 7 result, they had every reason to be so. According to twenty seven of the polling centers, the RN party was ahead. A party that put the question of immigration and Islam on top of its campaign agenda.
Political deception
Contrary to all polls and pundits’ predictions it was astounding, French left coalition the New Popular Front (NFP) won most seats in the parliamentary election as the far-right fell short to secure a majority and co-exist with President Emmanuel Macron for the next three years, hence the lack of a majority plunges the country into the dilemma of political compromises and uncertainty.
As a matter of fact, the left coalition came together in a bid to stave off the extremist far-right, after Ms. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party made major advances in the first round, in June’s E.U. elections, and the collapse of the clean-cut strategy invigorated by Le Pen’s darling boy, Jordan Bardella. But the New Popular Front (NFP), which got 193 seats in the newly elected National Assembly, still fell short of the 289 seats required for an absolute majority. Consequently, the final results of the voters and the reelection of Speaker Ms.Yaël Braun-Pivet from President Emmanuel Macron’s new party Together for the Republic; the election of the three vice-Speaker, and the commissions’ president of the seventieth French legislation is as a major blow to not only the far-right, but to President Emmanuel Macron who called the snap election in the hopes voters would keep his centrist-right coalition in place.
President Emmanuel Macron called for an Olympic truce. In light of the Paris 24 Summer Olympic Games that President Emmanuel Macron and team used this sports euphoria to gain time and slow the NFP’s momentum; yet, he provoked another diplomatic tension with Algiers over the issue of Western Sahara. President Emmanuel Macron kept his Prime Minister Gabriel Attal who became MP, is a caretaker government to temporarily remain in place until he appoints a new prime minister; speaking in a televised interview on the eve of Paris 24 Summer Olympic Games ceremony, President Emmanuel Macron responded à la Frank Underwood is cold, calculating and manipulative to the New Front Populaire (NFP) coalition who finally agreed on a candidate for the post of Premiership.
Last Friday the NFP coalition met President Emmanuel Macron to discuss the formation of the next government, as the French President started consultations with political parties until Monday on who could be the next prime minister fifty one days after blurry results of the parliamentary elections.
It’s a real political drama. President Emmanuel Macron, Together for the Republic party MPs, RN party MPs and what’s left of the ex-LR party MPs insist not to let the NFP to govern. The New Popular Front (NFP) has vowed to raise the minimum wage, to cap the price of essential foods and utilities, and to abrogate President Emmanuel Macron’s unpopular pension reform, which raised the retirement age to 64-years instead of 62.
The New Popular Front (NFP) also says it will recognize Palestinian statehood, following the heated “debate” in French media between the pros of France Unbowed (LFI) who are unjustly demonized and call anti-semitic by pro-Israel and Likud party for their brave positions on the ongoing carnage in Gaza Strip and occupied West Bank.
Frustration and plausible clashes
As the country enters a political impasse, with none of the three blocs reaching the crucial number of 289 seats in the new elected National Assembly needed to form a government, France faces a hung parliament, heading to political crisis and President Emmanuel Macron becomes lame duck president.
Since no political bloc is able to form a government with an absolute majority of seats, President Emmanuel Macron who excluded the NFP to form a government, president Emmanuel Macron tries to build a fragile coalition with “moderates” from the Socialist party and right-wing parties in which the left has already spoken up about the President François Mitterrand book: The Permanent Coup d’État published in 1964 during the presidency of General Charles de Gaulle, President François Mitterrand denounces the practice of personal power by General Charles de Gaulle.
Now, the NFP coalition with other MPs from the center left in the National Assembly are calling President Emmanuel Macron’s decision a coup against the people’s vote for not appoint Ms. Lucie Castets, 37 year-old, finance director for Paris City Hall. Ms. Castets, an unknown figure to the general public, is an economist and graduated from the French Ivy school of Sciences Po Paris and l’École Nationale d’Administration school for top civil servants.
France could face an institutional deadlock, plunging the country into an unprecedented situation in six decades. President Emmanuel Macron, however, would not be able to dissolve the newly elected National Assembly until June 9, 2025, and call for new parliamentary elections.
In sum, President Emmanuel Macron is in a political triathlon and in this context, anything could happen – endurance being a quality required in politics, just as in sports. By imploding conventional political parties both right and left, attempting to revolutionize French politics, President Emmanuel Macron’s authoritarian liberalism and arrogant governing style have led French democracy down to the world of Frank Underwood: “If you don’t like how the table is set, turn over the table.”
(Abdennour Toumi is an Independent journalist Maghreb Studies Researcher focus mainly on migrants’ integration & post-integration. Email him at nourhty@gmail.com.)
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