“Tehran shares this concern: prior to both the May 2026 Xi-Trump summit and the anticipated September summit, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas ​Araghchi visited China for consultations. While Washington sees Beijing as a “near-peer” competitor, Tehran considers it an indispensable lifeline—and both parties are keen to understand China’s position on the Iran war and the Middle East more broadly.

“China’s approach to the Middle East is important beyond Xi’s visit to Washington. If a new regional order is emerging from the ashes of the conflict, as some analysts suggest, China’s economic prowess and foreign policy ambition mean that it could play a major role in that new order—if it wishes to. While we cannot know how Xi and his circle of advisers are reading the current situation, China’s past behavior can provide us with important hints. In recent years, Beijing’s Middle East approach has developed in line with two key goals. The first is to find ways to use regional crises and developments to preserve its position or gain leverage vis-à-vis the United States. The second is to reduce China’s domestic exposure to shocks, threats, and crises emanating from the Middle East, rather than solving those problems at their root.”

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