Lebanese parliament afraid to vote for next president
By Ghassan Michel Rubeiz
When will Lebanon’s political leaders agree to vote for the next president of the republic? In this troubled country people are tired of talking politics. Helpless, day by day, they have been watching their country’s decline. Signs of malfunction are everywhere. The government has become the “enemy” of the people. The displaced and refugees make up more than one third of the population. Local currency has lost ninety percent of its value.
For the past six months, the hesitancy of the parliament to vote for a new head of state has paralyzed the political system. A caretaker cabinet is left to make urgent decisions. The legislature has become irrelevant. Public services are minimal. Courts are not accessible. New drivers without permits are on the streets. Banks do not return depositor’s savings; each client is allowed to withdraw a fixed quota of dollars monthly, at highly unfavorable rates.
Human nature is remarkably flexible. Citizens adapt to indefinite new lows in the quality of life. But a fraction of society can still make it. Defensively, a friend told this writer “if you have dollars you can live all right in this country.”He added “It is still safer to walk at night in Beirut than in New York.” For how long will this false sense of security last? Cases of attacks on banks are on the increase: Desperate customers with pistols in hand, successfully force their way into their banks to withdraw thousands of dollars from their savings – in order to cover a medical invoice or send a child to school.
With salaries immensely diluted by inflation and with high un-employment, the Lebanese have become dependent on their relatives in the Diaspora. Monthly transfers from abroad keep the Lebanese one step away from political explosions, suicide and crime. The strong dollar makes it easy to purchase local food at local prices.
There is clear evidence that the Lebanese abroad are still firmly attached to Lebanon. They visit to revive relations with family and friends. They visit to bring money to their relatives and to taste a bit of the old country. They also visit to make deals in a depression economy.
The adaptation to political misery is applicable to the Diaspora.
One would expect visits from abroad to decline as the situation in Lebanon deteriorates. This had been the case in the previous four years. But in recent weeks, the trend has reversed; visits from the outside are on the increase, for the moment. Hotels expect 1.5 million visitors this summer from the international community, most of whom would be relatives carrying cash. Each visitor is allowed to bring up to 15,000 US dollars into the country. Lebanese banks are able to receive transfers of any amount of foreign currency from outside the country.
Will this trend continue? A few days ago, a Saudi businessman was kidnapped for ransom but freed in two days. Incidents of this nature could have a chilling effect on a temporarily reviving tourist season. With good food, elegant restaurants, attractive beaches and a refined taste for art and culture, it is easy for the Lebanese elite to bury the past and forget the future. https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1339050/lebanese-tourism-sector-breathes-sigh-of-relief-after-saudi-captive-rescued.html
Political amnesia is also at play in the remarkable adaptability phenomenon. A wave of hope recently emerged as the people of Lebanon learned about improving political relations in the region. Alliances are shifting. Saudi Arabia and Iran have taken positive diplomatic steps. Syria is back in the Arab League. With some serious exceptions (e.g. in the Yemen crisis), the Arab Gulf States are working together on regional issues. Turkey is improving relations with Egypt and Syria.
The Lebanese may be reading too much in these regional developments. What role the US and Israel play in Lebanese politics? Washington funds the Lebanese army while it fiercely opposes the election of any president who would cooperate with Hezbollah, a resistance force against Israel. Tel-Aviv and the US Congress consider Hezbollah and Iran evil personified. The sentiment in Tehran is reciprocal. Israel is not willing to accept that Iran has managed to survive US sanctions, maintain influence on Hezbollah and the Syrian regime and develop a nuclear program.
America’s presence in Lebanon has been earned; it is not always aggressive or disturbing. Many in Lebanon believe Western support has been vital and generous. Many in Lebanon do not wish to live without the continuation of support of the US, France, and the West in general.
That said, the Lebanese of all backgrounds do not like Washington’s position on Israel’s policies on the Palestine question. As long as there are several hundred thousand Palestinian refugees in Lebanon and a few border villages occupied by Israel, it is hard for a weak Lebanese state to pressure Hezbollah to relinquish its militant resistance.
How far is Washington willing to go in targeting Hezbollah? The US has already placed economic sanctions on Hezbollah’s leaders and supporters. Meanwhile, Israel is methodically preparing (with military exercises) for the possibility of a regional war with Iran and its allies. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/05/centcom-commander-visits-israel-observes-multifront-war-exercise
To facilitate Lebanon’s elections, Washington must consider a president who would be non-provocative to Hezbollah and, at the same time, be appreciative of US presence in Lebanon.
As for Hezbollah, it must reconsider its support of a candidate like Suleiman Franjieh, whose main qualification is neutrality. Franjieh is too weak to oppose any side; and Lebanon needs healing and reform, not inaction and friendliness to allies. For many Lebanese, a Franjieh presidency conveys the idea that there is no solution for their country’s ills. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanons-hezbollah-backs-christian-politician-frangieh-presidency-2023-03-06/
If the local Lebanese would agree on a technically qualified candidate, it would be a surprise. The name of an International Monitory Fund, Middle East staff (Jihad Azour) has emerged this week as a viable candidate. But Hezbollah opposes Azour assuming he would be too critical of the Resistance. Hezbollah’s support for Franjieh and opposition to Azouri cannot be defended on rational grounds. In fact, it could cost the Resistance significant political capital. https://www.newarab.com/news/jihad-azour-named-likely-lebanon-presidential-candidate
There had been some hope that Washington or Hezbollah would eventually blink by softening positions in order to save Lebanon. There is no longer such hope. The situation remains grim. If Beirut is expected to wait for Tehran and Tel-Aviv to settle their conflict with force, no one knows in what shape Lebanon would be when the dust settles.
So far there is no consensus candidate. And there is no readiness for the parliament to allow the voting to achieve the results. The Lebanese parliament is afraid of a free and fair election.
Lebanon needs to be saved from its leaders.
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